Loyalty Movement Report: Big Box Retail

Big Box Retail: Stop Taking Customer Loyalty for Granted‍

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‍Introduction
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In our previous report, Redefining Customer Loyalty, Cardlytics defined loyalty as a consumer’s preference for a merchant over competitors. We analyzed $160B in spending across six industries to measure customer loyalty and spending patterns with both loyal and non-loyal customers.

But customer behavior isn’t fixed—customers shift between loyalty segments over time. Understanding these shifts helps identify churn and informs strategies to nurture relationships and move customers to higher loyalty segments. In our Loyalty Movement Report, we dive into customer behavior in the Big Box category to better understand engagement over time by analyzing 8 brands with more than $400B in consumer spend behavior.*

Big Box Retailer Category Loyal Customers

On average, 76% of a merchant’s customers are not actually loyal. But the loyal segment has a much higher share of wallet (70%) than a not loyal segment (15%).

Top Customers (top 10% of most frequent transactors) are evenly split between loyal and not loyal customers. But the loyal customer segment shows an almost 3x higher share of wallet.

Findings

We looked into purchase data at 8 big box retailers in the US over the last 8 quarters (Q1-23 through Q4-24) on a quarter by quarter basis to see whether even the “most loyal” customers showed changes in their purchase behavior.

‍Big Box Loyalty Movement

Overall, quarter over quarter, almost 80% of customers tend to remain in their existing segments while 20% increase or decrease their loyalty to a merchant. Yet there is much more extensive customer loyalty movement within the “not loyal” segments. 

Segment Movement

While all segments show purchase behavior movement, the Tied segment (part of Not Loyal customers) shows the most movement - both up (29%)  and down (36%) - into other segments. 

‍Big Box Leaky Bucket

Big Box brands are acquiring new customers yet even more existing customers are moving into the lapsed tier. This cycle can be reversed by continuing to nurture existing customers.

Diving deeper into the individual segments tells us:

• Loyal customers and those that Prefer the competition are the most rigid (with 87% staying the same). Those customers that are Tied have the greatest propensity for a behavior change (with only 32% staying the same).
• Loyal customers are far less likely to churn. Customers that are Tied are 50% more likely to churn and customers that Prefer the competition are 250% more likely to churn!

Definitions of Customer Segments

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Loyal Customers
Loyal: Only shop with a specific brand, or have the highest share of wallet with a given brand and relative rank is lower than all other brands in consideration set

Not Loyal Customers
Tied: Similar relative ranks to 2 or more brands regardless of share of wallet ranking
‍Prefer: Lower share of wallet and higher rank than other brands in their consideration set
‍Lapsed: Shopped historically but do not shop currently, as defined by the analysis time period
‍New: Shop currently but have not shopped historically, as defined by the analysis time period

Takeaways

Marketers know it’s more costly to acquire or re-acquire customers than to keep existing ones engaged. When brands neglect current customers, they risk losing them and undoing past investment - not loyal customers are 50%-250% more likely to lapse/churn than loyal customers. Loyalty is fragile and demands ongoing effort as competition is always close by. To stay top of mind, marketers must continuously nurture relationships, understand customer needs, and offer seamless experiences. To foster loyalty with your customers, consider these recommendations:

• Use an “always on” strategy to keep customers engaged, regardless of purchase frequency.
• Regularly update/refine customer segments and adjust reward offers to keep them engaged.
• Use targeted campaigns to boost loyalty and revenue.

Cardlytics can deliver a comprehensive Customer Loyalty Analysis with insights into customer behavior and movement across defined loyalty segments. Contact us for more details.

‍* For this report, we've selected a sample of 8 of the largest merchants including a mix of online marketplaces, memberships and omni-channel retail, collectively representing over $400bn in annual card spend. This sample differs from the previous Customer Loyalty Analysis report.
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About Cardlytics‍

Cardlytics (NASDAQ: CDLX) is a digital advertising platform. We partner with financial institutions to run their rewards programs that promote customer loyalty and deepen relationships. In turn, we have a secure view into approximately 1 of every 2 card-based transactions in the U.S., allowing us to see where and when consumers are spending their money. We use these insights to help marketers identify, reach, and influence likely buyers at scale, as well as measure the true sales impact of marketing campaigns. Learn more at www.cardlytics.com.